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In his press briefing yesterday, Kofi Annan read resolutions that sounded more like a replica of the ODM manifesto than from a three-week intensive negotiation between two bitter political rivals. Information on what transpired in Kilaguni Resort indicates that PNU will not (voluntarily) concede an inch of executive power to ODM.
According to Annan, who apparently enjoys universal support in his Kenya peace mission, a grand coalition is the only viable option, but the government side is avoiding this arrangement like plague. In reality, PNU are only making additional enemies each day the Annan mediation drags on. PNU are also unknowingly giving the ODM undue mileage because Koffi Annan is experiencing first-hand the kind of crap that Kenyans have had to put up with since Kibaki received instruments of power in 2002. Annan is relaying his frustrations to the diplomatic community who are becoming bolder in their pronouncements with each passing day.
ODM insiders say (and I agree with them) that the party is just about done with negotiations and any political analyst worth his salt knows that nothing less than force will make the ‘duly elected government’ concede to democratic demands. They opine that it is just a question of when and how.
The PNU government is now using its perfected kindergarten tactics of enticing the ODM negotiators with cabinet positions and amnesty from persecution for past crimes (sic!) rather than engage in progressive negotiation while not having the slightest idea that they are undermining the Annan led mediation talks.
This afternoon, hints will be definitely dropped by ODM leaders at the funeral of the late Embakasi legislator Mugabe Were in Budalangi, Western Province, and the grapevine tells us that ODM leadership (read Pentagon) are not amused by the illegal approach of its members and the dragging of feet by the government side.
With the presence of George Bush next door in Tanzania and his influential Secretary of State Condi Rice due to visit Kenya on Monday ‘to support Annan’s efforts’, and going by the number of strong warnings issued to saboteurs by the international community, Kenyans can expect diplomatic fireworks to take place as from Tuesday (actually Monday afternoon) next week.
The issue is no longer who stole/won the last elections, but how best peace, stability and normalcy can be returned to Kenya. PNU have been evasive on any proposals to a coalition government since January but on Monday, Kibaki will have to make hard decisions including that of giving up significant power to a prime minister who not only beat him at the ballot but also happens to control more MPs than himself. The government side has continuously frustrated mediation efforts and international community seems to be running out of patience.
It will be a sad day for the country if Kibaki rejects Annan’s grand coalition proposals. Intelligence leaked to us indicate that PNU will most likely be walking out of the Annan talks (Bomas style) and this will be the beginning of anarchy.
PNU will, in its usual chest thumping modus operandi, resort to state sponsored intimidation tactics like mass arrests of ODM supporters and leaders, out-law public demos, probably another assassination of prominent ODM member, imposition of illegal curfews in opposition strongholds, etc. The end result will be a rising death-toll which will give the UN Security Council a perfect excuse to intervene. Eventually, the regime of Kibaki will be forced out militarily by the UN and fresh general elections called to the advantage of the ODM.
Whichever way you look at it, PNU will have to concede power to ODM sooner or later. In my opinion, they stand to secure more if they accept Annan’s proposal for grand coalition transitional government now, rather than be militarily forced out later.