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• December 31, 2007
• My Chilling Predictions: Oh How I Wish I had Been Wrong

  Posted: December 31st, 2007, 7:33am EST

  Plus Vikii's strange comment: Did Vikii know the President's strategy in advance?
  
  I get super-busy sometimes and don't notice even recent work that I have posted.
  
  My attention was recently drawn to this post that I made just before the general elections on Dec 24th;
  
  Monday, December 24, 2007
  
  Elections 2007: What Consequences?
  
  As we head to the elections after Boxing day, I find that I have less and less to say to you my dear readers and more worrying to do.
  
  If Raila wins, what will the consequences be? Will the Kibaki administration hand over power peacefully? Will they accept defeat?
  
  If Kibaki wins what will happen to Kenya? Will Kenyans in 6 provinces accept the results? Will the multitudes of Kenyans desperate for change—any change accept such a result?
  
  How long will it take to heal the wounds that started with the terribly expensive referendum of 2005 which cost Kenyans much more than just a lot of money?
  
  What if the elections produce a constitutional crisis that the current constitution can never handle?
  
  And most of all my eyes are firmly focused on the Langata constituency where nobody quite knows what is going to happen.
  
  Enough has been said and now is the time to sit back and see what happens. Now is the time to let the people of Kenya speak. My prayer is that they will speak so loudly and clearly that there will be no constitutional crisis. My prayer is that precious lives will be spared. The truth is that no politician is worth dieing for let alone our current crop of selfish, self-seeking ….. (I restrain myself from using abusive language).
  
  The truth is that even as Kenyans shout themselves hoarse in support of their preferred candidate, this is a very dangerous and unpredictable time for Kenya.
  
  I take this opportunity to wish you all my dear friends, a merry Christmas and a prosperous new year, 2008. Thank you for your support and most of all thank you for your patience as I have rumbled on and on throughout the year coming up with views that have been very different from the ones you hold dear. Nothing personal though, I just love my country too much and I am sure the same is true with you and that is why you have chosen to spend valuable time here with all the characters that have made “kumekucha” their home.
  
  Please don’t run away in shame if the election results don’t go the way you want. Let’s keep talking here and learning from each other so that we quickly get to understand why the election results go they way they will.
  
  Let’s continue to love our country, irrespective of our poliyical leanings. After all Kenya is bigger than out preferred candidate, bigger than our issues and feelings.
  
  God bless Kenya. God bless us all.
  
  How I wish I had been wrong.
  
  You can see the post here;
  
  [kumekucha.blogspot.com]
  
  These were the 2 comments on that day. Notice Vikii's chillingly accurate prediction;
  
  Anonymous said...
  There you go again. PNU already said that if they lose, power will be handed over. But how come you cannot fathom an ODM loss? I believe there would be a problem only if Hon Raila loses. Most ODM supporters exude confidence that their man shall win- that is OK. Most of them would really like him to win- OK. But what IF (big IF) Hon Raila loses in a fair contest?
  
  Hmm, lemme guess. Then ODM will say, " We reject results, we have always said the Govt would rig. Here is the proof. We lost!"
  
  I hope ODM proves me wrong, in the unlikely event that they lose.
  
  2:34 AM
  Vikii said...
  My take is that the consttution, though not perfect in as far as transfer of power goes, it leaves no room for a crisis. It is simple; win the majority vote, get 25% in at least five provinces and win your parliamentary seat. There will be no crisis. If one wins the majority vote and fails to meet any of the other two requirements, that is not a crisis. We just go for the run-off which Kivuitu has already budgeted for.
  
  Just a reminder; Those Kenyans in those 'six provinces' may not have a choice. The presidential vote is not about how many provinces one wins but how many votes one gets. They may just decide to take a walk on the streets and that will be it.