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Kenya presidential polls thriller NOT headed for a photo-finish says GoK's NSIS

The authoritative Mail & Guardian Newspaper of South Africa has published a comprehensive article in which the author has confirmed "having seen a government intelligence report which predicts that (Raila) Odinga would win with 5,6-million votes, or 55,9%, placing (Mwai) Kibaki in second place with 3,1-million votes or 31,09%, and (Kalonzo) Musyoka third with 1,2-million votes, or 12,9%."

These predictions are chillingly similar to those posted on this forum on 14th December 2007, which read in part........

"Unofficial opinion poll survey done by the National Security Intelligence Service (NSIS) and leaked to this blogger by an insider shows that;

With 100% average turnout Raila 63% Kibaki 27%;
With a 90% turnout Raila 58% Kibaki 33%;
With a 80% turnout Raila 53% Kibaki 39%;
With a 50% turnout Raila 43% Kibaki 42%.

The leaked NSIS data does not show/mention Kalonzo Musyoka nor any other presidential candidates. These are the figures that senior cabinet ministers and the president’s close friends (read athuri) are scratching their heads over as of this morning."

The Mail and Guardian predictions are also very close to those published by Kumekucha a few days before the so called Gallup and Steadman reports.

Before PNU enthusiasts jump to bash this blogger, it will be useful to say that the Mail & Guardian newspaper (popularly known as M&G) is weekly investigative newspaper, published by M&G Media in Johannesburg, South Africa, with a strong focus on politics, government, the environment, civil society and business. M&G is a respected media house in this part of the world and has won numerous international media awards including the prestigious "IPD Best International Newspaper Award."

On the other hand the National Security Intelligence Service run by the Government of Kenya is a leading intelligence outfit in Africa. With an annual budget of Kshs.4b (approximately US$55m) and like all other intelligence organisations, the NSIS is mandated to gather and exploit secret information. Accordingly, it identifies conditions that threaten Kenya's political, economic and social stability and "subsequently develops opportunities and strategies to neutralise such threats on behalf of the Government of Kenya." It is not clear whether this mandate includes "neutralising" an act by Kenyan voters as well. The NSIS budget, like those of Office of the President, are kept at arms length whenever the Auditor General is in town.

Back to opinion polls, sources further reveal that the Nation Media Group CEO, Linus Gitahi, has been under intense pressure from PNU Chief Electoral Advisor Stanley Murage and Kibaki Tena Campaign Manager Lee Karuri to suspend/cancel publication of the groups weekly opinion polls from three different research companies that have persistently shown Kibaki trailing Raila, but the NMG Board of Directors would hear none of it considering the Standard is breathing down the Nation's neck in daily newspaper sales index, especially in this thrilling pre-election period. Mr. Murage remains on the civil service payroll and will most certainly work for the in-coming president in the first few weeks/months in office.

Because the GoK is made up of politicians, it is almost certain that the NSIS election intelligence report could be the main reason for the marked increase in intensity of campaigns by President Mwai Kibaki and his chief rival Raila Odinga whom the PNU suspects has his own parallel intelligence within the NSIS "since Raila has been receiving carbon copies of similar intelligence data as the president".

It is an open secret that the PNU opted to hire two foreign political scientists from South Africa following revelations by the same NSIS reports that Kibaki was headed for an massive electoral defeat by Raila ostensibly because Raila is receiving "free" consultancy services from one feared spin-doctor Dick Morris.

It was also not lost on observers that last week Mwai Kibaki chickened out of a public debate challenge by Raila Odinga out of fear of having to contend with an angry and betrayed electorate if gathered intelligence was anything to go by.

Interestingly, early this week, an official trip to Luo Nyanza by the Head of State (to formally open the Japanese funded Kshs. 13b Sondu Murui Power Station) was called off at the last minute after intelligence reports showed that the Head of State was likely to suffer public humiliation - like his predecessor Daniel Arap Moi - at the hands of ODM supporters if he went ahead with the trip. The same trip was to be used as a PNU campaign platform in what is Raila's stronghold and a district was due to be created in the Rarieda constituency. This is not to say that the Head of State (and Mrs. Lucy Kibaki) have not had to contend with ODM placard waving supporters and demonstrators in areas previously assumed to be "safe" like Western, Kisii/Gucha, Nairobi, Coast and North Eastern. These events have been given a blackout by mainstream media mostly out of fear of a backlash by the no-nonsense first lady. An incident at a Kibaki campaign rally turned very embarrassing a few days ago when a large crowd virtually blackmailed the president into creating a district for them.

All said and done, interesting times lie ahead for Kenya.

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