In October 2006, Netflix offered a prize for a computer system that will accurately predict their customers preferences better than their current system. Netfilx, the largest online DVD rental service, is offering a tidy sum of $1 million for a 10% improvement over their system of predicting whether a customer will like a movie given their previous DVD selections. By the last count, the leading contender offered a 8.46% improvement over Netflix's system. With over 27,000 contestants in more than 22,000 teams spread across 163 different countries, Netfix has received 19,073 valid submissions from 2,636 different teams.
As an innovator, I can't over-emphasise the edge this country has over the rest of the world when it comes to innovation. Time's magazine 2007 innovation of the year, the iPhone, just goes to show the lead the US has over other nations. While the iPhone may seem like an obvious design for a cell phone, the electronic engineers at Apple are the ones who took the honours of developing such a revolutionary product. And then there is Boeing's dreamliner airplane which is sold-out and on back-order way before it's debut even though they are fallen back on delivery because of supply chain issues with their partners.
For this reason, the US will continue to dominate other countries in every aspect because of the edge that they have when it comes to technology which is the key driver of capital in today's world. It's no surprise therefore that there are organizations like Netflix and wealthy individuals like Sir Richard Branson who are offering cash rewards for innovative ideas. Call it a market place of ideas, if you will. More than ever, creative minds are being rewarded generously for offering workable solutions to the many problems that firms face.
One such place where you can find cash rewards in return for innovative ideas is InnoCentive. Instead of companies making an investment in researching solutions, they are now auctioning their problems in an open market place whereby skilled individuals can use their resources and time to come up with viable solutions. It is sort of like outsourcing of research and development without the loss of intellectual property by the firms. The InnoCentive concept seeks to bring together a community of engineers, scientists, inventors, and business people with expertise in life sciences, engineering, chemistry, math, computer science, and entrepreneurship to solve some of the world's toughest challenges.
In return, those who offer the winning solution get to pocket cash rewards ranging from $5,000 to as high as $1,000,000. The innovation market place is divided into six categories, namely: Physical Sciences, Engineering and Design, Chemistry, Math and Computer Science, Life Sciences and finally Business and Entrepreneurship. I've had a peek at some of the listings and I think I could attempt solving one or two but I will not because it will involve the use of resources at my place of work which will be in contravention to my terms of employment.
Browsing through some of the problems like the one seeking reduce the total sugar content in fillings for baked products shows that you do not have to have specialized training to participate. A reward of $40,000 awaits anyone who comes up with food ingredient(s) and/or processes capable of reducing total sugar content while maintaining taste and texture in sweet fillings. No offence, but I can see this problem being solved by a stay at home housewife who has good baking skills and not necessarily an experienced food technologist. Knowing how bad the cakes and candies are in America, I believe someone from outside the US holds the solution to this challenge.
Registration to the site is a prerequisite for those seeking to take on the many challenges posted in the website. I am yet to register but I am certain this is one website firms and learning institutions in the emerging world should be looking at with a view to winning some of the awards. The same is also applicable to students with access to resources in learning institutions whereby they can attempt to solve some of these challenges.
As someone who's bread is buttered by innovation, every year when I visit Kenya, I make a point of meeting professors and lecturers in Kenyan universities to discuss with them ways of partnering and provide a linkage to non-monetary resources from the US. To say that their overall response has been disappointing is an understatement. Instead they prefer to get handouts which they will misappropriate for their own personal use. This year I made a decision not to bother with them and instead to leave them to wallow in their own ignorance. I have since cancelled my plans of taking a sabbatical to Kenya because of the poor reception I have received. Surprisingly even the university students back home have the same attitude and out of the many students I have spoken to only one graduate student has contacted me seeking solutions for their research.
Like I have said before, the answers to our problems are neither debt cancellation, aid nor trade. Innovation is the key to our economic prosperity. Failure to do so, our other hope is the manufacturing sector. Only if we build, will we attract the capital that we yearn for. Until then, Vision 2030 is just but hot air coming from the rear ends of Kenyan politicians and their corrupt hanger-ons.
For some time we've intended on remodelling our house but with the housing slow down we decided now might be a good time as there is no shortage of builders. So we called in a few builders to come in and give as a quote of the remodelling. So the last few weeks I've been entertaining builders in the evenings after work as we go through the intended remodelling works.
We've gotten in all the remodelling quotes and settled for one of the contractors. The quotes ranged from as low as $16,000 to as high as $28,000. The company that offered us the highest quote also seems to also have told us the most bullshit. For one, even though they bill themselves as a high end luxury contractor, they seemed to be the most inflexible and their agent told us a pack of lies. Every time he opened his mouth I could literally smell cow dung from his breadth. We settled for the last builder even before he had completed his sales pitch. Not only was he forthright but he gave us a reasonably priced estimate of between $19,000 to $21,000 depending on the options we choose.
Now that we have shopped for the builder and settled on the design and price, the next step is seeking finance to fund the remodelling. As much as I would like to pay for the costs upfront, I am not able to foot this big undertaking as we had not specifically saved for it and we don't want to take a dip into our savings.
Regarding the financing, we have a few options, namely. Either a revolving type credit where you get a no interest/no payment deal till 2009 or go for the home equity financing. Undecided, we decided to apply for both. As expected we were approved for both loans within a few days. However, the bank is trying to force us to take a larger home equity loan than the $21,000 for the remodelling costs. Our plan was to pay the builder 20% of the cost and finance the balance of the amount. The bank instead wants to push us into cashing out a minimum of $25,000 in order to get the best interest rate of prime rate minus 1%. The other option they are offering is a Home Equity Loan for the exact amount that we want and for a fixed term but with a 1% prepayment penalty and at prime rate, which currently stands at 7.5%.
Therefore we have 3 financing options. Either we take a HELOC for up to 80% LTV ratio of our dwelling, or take the HEL for the exact amount that we want, or settle for the 12 months no interest/no payments revolving credit.
So what have we decided to do? We'll go with the revolving credit and at the same time open the Home Equity Line of Credit though we will not cash out any money out of it. Instead, we'll use this money to pay-off the 24% interest revolving credit at the end of 2008. That way, we'll have borrowed up to $17,000 interest free for one year and then switch to the interest deductible HELOC loan for the remaining of the unpaid balance.
Based on the state of the US economy and the health of the financial sector, it is unlikely that the Fed will raise interest rates in the near term. If anything, the financial markets are priced for further cuts. So we are not worried about rising interest rates and therefore we can wait until we are ready to cash out the exact pay-off amount in order to lock in the interest rate and the term of the loan. And should the rates fall further in 2009, we have the option of unlocking the loan and locking it in at a lower rate for a cost of $50.
My plan for the coming year is to pay down the revolving credit loan as much as possible. I will do this over the course of the year though I could hold onto the money till the end of next year and lump it together into the pay-off amount. If need be, we can forgo going on vacation next year as I don't want to clear off this loan as fast as I can even though I could get by just paying off the interest only on the HELOC. As it is, I never been keen on taking a home equity loan but this is a good time to update our home. As they say, only a fool does not change his mind. Its probably going to take at least 3 years to recoup this investment as the housing market is on a downtown. We've just had the real estate tax appraisal and if we sneak in some updates now it will be at least 2 years before the county comes back calling for an appraisal and even then they might not do a physical inspection as they have just done it.
One the other hand, we also want to take advantage of the low interest rate environment to spruce up our house. Now that banks are not lending to real estate investors and home buyers are shrinking, they are in a way desperate to get borrowers with stellar credit history's. Being of that type, I would never shy from squeezing money out of the banks. The 12 months interest free loan on on $17,000 in the current financial environment is a steal. And the creeping inflation makes this deal even more appealing than if we had saved for prior to undertaking the remodeling project.
PS. I'm done with ranting (here, here and here) about the Fed injecting money into the US economy. It is with great pleasure that I am going to borrow part of this money and make the most out of it.
Here, have a dollar
In fact, no, brotherman, here have two
Two dollars means a snack for me
But it means a big deal to you
- Mr Wendle, Arrested Development
One day after all but one of the FOMC members voted to cut the federal funds rate, the DJIA took a beating closing 362 points down. And what does the Fed do? Pumps more money into the economy. In total, the Fed unleashed the largest cash pile ever into the US financial system. $41 billion in total. That's $41,000,000,000! A sum equivalent to the GDP of oil rich Kuwait. Currently the US dollar is trading at a record low against most currencies and Oil prices are poised to breach the $100 dollar mark anytime now.
It seems the Fed is determined to ensure that consumer spending, which accounts for more than 60% of the US GDP, does not dip during the upcoming holiday season. All that remains to be seen is President Bush addressing the nation on TV calling on Americans to hit to the malls as was the case after twin towers attack.
So far Walmart has thrown in the towel and slashed prices of 15,000 items this week in an attempt to woe shoppers. As if this years 20% increase in discounted items is not enough, Walmart has promised to do more in the coming weeks.
All this is pointing a nasty end. When the bottom gives way, all the efforts by the Fed will only make it worse because of their insistence on prolonging the expansion cycle. Yesterdays release of the third quarter inflation driven 3.9% GDP estimate is a hard swallow for many investors. Should there be a sell-off of precious metals in the coming days, I'm definitely getting myself some Silver.